As I sit here watching the Badger basketball team dismantle another opponent, I can't help but wonder—could this finally be the year they break through to the Final Four? Having followed college basketball for over two decades, I've seen promising Wisconsin teams come and go, but something feels different about this squad. The way they're playing right now reminds me of those legendary Bo Ryan teams that always found ways to win, though this group might actually have more offensive firepower than any Badger team I've ever seen.
The recent news about PVL commissioner Sherwin Malonzo discussing contractual technicalities in player transfers got me thinking about roster construction in modern basketball. While we're talking college ball here rather than professional volleyball, the same principles apply—getting the right pieces to fit together is everything. Malonzo's insights about how contract details can completely change a team's trajectory resonate deeply with what we're seeing in Madison this season. The Badgers have managed their scholarship allocations beautifully, bringing in transfers who complement their existing core rather than disrupting it. I've been particularly impressed with how they've balanced experience and youth—something many programs struggle with.
Looking at their current roster, what stands out to me is their incredible depth. Last season, they essentially played seven guys heavy minutes, but this year they're comfortably going nine deep without significant drop-off. Their bench is outscoring opponents' benches by nearly 8 points per game, which is a massive advantage in tournament settings where fatigue becomes a factor. The development of their sophomore big man has been remarkable—he's increased his scoring from 6.2 to 14.8 points per game while maintaining his defensive presence. Having that kind of interior threat opens up everything for their perimeter players, and it shows in their three-point percentage climbing to 38.7% this season.
What really gives me confidence about their Final Four chances is their schedule performance. They've already notched four Quad 1 wins, including that impressive road victory against Purdue where they held Zach Edey to just 14 points—nearly 10 below his season average. Their defensive efficiency rating sits at 92.1, which places them in the top 15 nationally. I've always believed defense travels better than offense in March, and Wisconsin's ability to get stops in crucial moments separates them from previous teams that relied too heavily on outscoring opponents.
The analytics love this team more than any Wisconsin squad in recent memory. Their NET ranking has hovered around 12 all season, and KenPom has them at 14 with offensive and defensive efficiencies both in the top 20. What's fascinating is their tempo—they're playing slightly faster than traditional Wisconsin teams while maintaining their methodical half-court execution. They're generating 1.12 points per possession in conference play, which is outstanding given the defensive quality of the Big Ten this year.
I do have some concerns, though. Their turnover rate in road games sits at 18.3%, which is higher than you'd like for a team with championship aspirations. They've also shown vulnerability against teams with elite athleticism in the backcourt, as we saw in their loss to Marquette where Tyler Kolek torched them for 28 points. Tournament success often comes down to guard play, and while Chucky Hepburn has been terrific, I wonder if they have enough creators when defenses tighten in March.
The biggest factor working in their favor might be the relatively open nature of college basketball this season. There's no dominant team like we've seen in recent years—no 2012 Kentucky or 2018 Villanova that appears head and shoulders above everyone else. The parity this season means a well-coached, experienced team like Wisconsin has a legitimate shot. I'd put their chances of reaching the Final Four at around 25%, which might not sound high but is actually quite significant in the chaotic world of March Madness.
Having watched countless tournament runs over the years, I've learned that certain ingredients separate Final Four teams from the rest. Wisconsin checks most boxes: experienced guards, reliable big men, good three-point shooting, solid defense, and excellent coaching. Where they might fall short is that explosive scorer who can single-handedly take over games when the offense stagnates. Still, Greg Gard has this team playing with a connectivity that's rare in today's transfer portal era. They move the ball beautifully, ranking in the top 30 nationally in assists per game at 16.4.
If they can secure a top-3 seed in the NCAA tournament—which looks increasingly likely—their path becomes much more manageable. The difference between a 2-seed and 4-seed is enormous, and Wisconsin's remaining schedule gives them opportunities to solidify their resume. Their February 24th matchup at Indiana could be particularly telling, as Assembly Hall has been a house of horrors for many ranked teams over the years.
Ultimately, I believe this team has what it takes to make a Final Four run. They have the pieces, the coaching, and perhaps most importantly, the timing might be right in a season without clear favorites. They'll need some luck with the bracket and likely need to avoid certain matchup nightmares, but the foundation is there. As someone who's been burned by premature Final Four predictions before, I'm cautiously optimistic that this Wisconsin team could be dancing in Phoenix come April.
