As I sit here watching TCU's recent game tapes, I can't help but feel both excited and concerned about their offensive potential this season. Having followed college basketball for over a decade, I've seen what separates good teams from great ones, and frankly, the Frogs have some work to do if they want to compete at the highest level. Their current offensive rating of 102.3 places them in the bottom half of the Big 12, and that simply won't cut it against powerhouse programs like Kansas and Baylor.
What strikes me most about TCU's current offensive scheme is how predictable it's become. They're running the same pick-and-roll actions we saw last season, and opponents are starting to catch on. I remember watching their game against Texas where they ran the identical sideline out-of-bounds play three times - and Texas intercepted it twice. That's just poor adaptation, and it's something that needs immediate attention from the coaching staff. The good news is they have the personnel to make significant improvements, particularly if they look to incorporate some of the creative offensive sets we're seeing from other successful programs.
Speaking of personnel, there's an interesting parallel between TCU's situation and what we're seeing with undrafted players making their mark elsewhere. Take that Lyceum star who went undrafted in the recent PBA Draft - he's using the NCAA as his proving ground, and that mentality is exactly what TCU needs to adopt. When players feel they have something to prove, they often develop that extra edge that transforms decent offenses into dangerous ones. TCU's players should approach every game with that same chip-on-the-shoulder attitude, especially after last season's disappointing 21-13 finish.
One area where I'd love to see immediate improvement is their three-point shooting distribution. Last season, they attempted approximately 23.7 threes per game but only converted at a 32% clip. That's not terrible, but it's not championship-level either. What frustrates me is watching them settle for contested threes early in the shot clock when they have players capable of attacking the rim. Mike Miles Jr., for instance, shot 49% on two-point attempts but only took 12.3 shots per game. I'd like to see that number climb to at least 15, maybe even 17. He's their most dynamic scorer, and the offense should run through him more consistently.
The half-court sets need more variety too. I counted at least six possessions in their last game where they ran the same high-post action without any counters or secondary options. Modern defenses are too sophisticated for that kind of repetition. What made last year's Baylor team so effective was their ability to run multiple actions within a single possession, keeping defenders guessing and creating higher-percentage shots. TCU has the athletes to implement similar concepts - they just need the creative play-calling to match.
Ball movement is another concern. Their assist percentage of 51.2% ranks 8th in the conference, which tells me they're relying too much on isolation plays. While one-on-one basketball can work in certain situations, it's not sustainable over a full season, especially when facing teams with strong defensive rotations. I'd like to see them incorporate more dribble hand-offs and quick-hitter actions that create driving lanes and kick-out opportunities. The numbers don't lie - when they record 15 or more assists, their win probability increases by nearly 35%.
Where TCU could really make strides is in their transition offense. They're averaging only 8.2 fast break points per game, which is surprisingly low given their athletic roster. I've noticed they tend to walk the ball up court even after defensive stops, missing opportunities to attack before defenses get set. This is where conditioning and mindset come into play. The best offensive teams in college basketball push the pace relentlessly, and TCU has the depth to adopt this approach without sacrificing defensive intensity.
What often gets overlooked in offensive discussions is player development. I'm particularly interested in seeing how Emanuel Miller expands his game this season. His mid-range jumper has improved, but he needs to develop a reliable three-point shot to truly space the floor. If he can raise his three-point percentage from last season's 29% to somewhere in the mid-30s, that would open up driving lanes for everyone else. These individual improvements, when multiplied across the roster, can transform an entire offensive system.
The coaching staff deserves credit for recruiting talented players, but now they need to put them in better positions to succeed. I'd love to see more Spain pick-and-rolls, more elevator screens for shooters, and more creative uses of their big men in dribble-handoff situations. These aren't revolutionary concepts, but they're proven offensive weapons that TCU underutilizes. Sometimes the difference between a good offense and a great one isn't inventing new plays but executing fundamental actions with precision and timing.
Looking at their upcoming schedule, TCU has a real opportunity to test these potential improvements against quality opponents. The non-conference slate includes several games where they can experiment with new offensive sets before hitting the brutal Big 12 schedule. My advice to Coach Dixon would be to use these early games as laboratories for offensive innovation rather than sticking with what's comfortable. The teams that improve throughout the season are the ones willing to adapt and evolve.
Ultimately, TCU's offensive success this season will come down to embracing versatility and developing that killer instinct we see in championship teams. They have the talent - now they need the system and mentality to match. If they can incorporate more ball movement, push the tempo, and develop that undrafted-player mentality of having something to prove, I genuinely believe they can jump from middle-of-the-pack to legitimate contenders. The foundation is there - it's just about building upon it with smarter strategies and relentless execution.
